Determinants of household saving in China

Abstract

It is a conventional wisdom that since the start of the Chinese economic reform in 1978, the domestic saving structure in China has changed significantly. Previous studies of household saving in China (for example: Qian, 1988, Feltenstein et al, 1990, and Wakabayashi and Mackellar, 1999) have usually relied upon the Keynesian absolute-income hypothesis, Duesenberry's relative-income hypothesis, and Friedman's permanent-income hypothesis. This thesis uses the Modigliani-Brumberg life-cycle hypothesis to examine the determinants of household saving behavior in the Peoples' Republic of China during the period 1978 to 2003. The research uses modern cointegration techniques to examine the impact on saving rates of economic growth, age dependency, wealth, the real interest rate, social security payments and unemployment (as a proxy for income uncertainty). Autoregressive distributed lag models are constructed and tested. The results find that economic growth, the real interest rate and social security payments have the expected effect with significant parameters; age dependency has the expected sign but in one model is not statistically significant; and that unemployment is not significant. The most surprising result is that increases in household wealth are associated with increased saving rates, which may help explain very high economic growth rates in China post 1978.

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