Technology protocols for climate change: an application of fund

Abstract

A technology protocol to govern long-term international greenhouse gas emission reduction is proposed. The protocol consists of three parameters: a graduation income, below which countries have no emission reduction obligations; a convergence rate, at which emission intensities should approach that of the most carbon-extensive countries; and an acceleration rate, at the which the most carbon-extensive countries should improve its technology over and above the business as usual scenario. Depending on the parameter values, emission reduction ranges from draconian to almost nil. The graduation income and acceleration rate have the expected effects. The effect of the convergence rate is strongly scenario-dependent; some scenarios, perhaps unrealistically assume strong technological convergence in the no policy case; in other scenarios, adopting best commercial technology in the whole world would lead to substantial emission reduction. Not surprisingly, regions prefer different parameters in the technology protocol. Adopting the opinion of the median voter, atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide in the year 2200 would be reduced from 1650 ppm to 950 ppm. This reduction is relatively robust to changes in crucial model parameters. The costs of complying to the technology protocol can be reduced substantially through international trade in emission permits and, particularly, banking and borrowing.

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