Using monthly data to predict quarterly output

Robert Ingenito · Bharat Trehan

53 citations0/0 files storedRePEc: Research Papers in Economics

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Forecasting Techniques and Applications Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Unemployment and Economic Growth

Abstract

Some time ago, the Commerce Department changed the way it calculates real gross domestic product. In response to that change, this paper presents an update of a simple model that is used to predict the growth rate of current quarter real output based on available monthly data. After searching over a set containing more than 30 different variables, we find that a model that utilized monthly data on consumption and nonfarm payroll employment to predict contemporaneous real GDP does best.

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References

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