Research on Discrete Grey Model and Its Mechanism

Abstract

Prediction is important for the modern scientific management. Accurate prediction can help to make correct decision and promote the decision-making quality. Grey model of prediction is a kind of forecasting model There are two unsolved problems in GM (1,1), the theoretical basis of transformation from discrete form to continuous form and the forecasting stability, which puzzled those who are absorbed in grey theory. Many scholars used different methods to revise the model, and they have made some progress, but they didn't solve it absolutely in principle. To solve these two problem and on the angle from discrete form to discrete form, discrete grey forecasting model is constructed. And the relationship between it and original grey model is studied on, also the course of instability in original grey forecasting model is found out Finally a series of accuracy index number is used to prove the unbiased property of DGM (1,1). It is indicated that the simulative result is satisfied and DGM (1,1) can be considered as the precise form of grey model and model GM (1,1) as approximate form.

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