Population: Delusion and Reality

Abstract

Both Robert Malthus and Condorcet offer an analysis of the population problem. Malthusian overpopulation notions suggest a link with the modern override approach of shifting aid from development to family planning with legal and economic restrictions to ease the pressure of a high birth rate. Condorcets notions are more compatible with the modern approach of rational decision making by men and women with knowledge and a sense of personal security. The collaborative approach finds a solution to the population problem in joint government and citizen actions to produce economic and social conditions favorable to slower population growth. Gerard Piel has most recently written on this approach. Prominent calamity authors are Paul Ehrlich (The Population Bomb) and Garrett Hardins Living Within Limits. There are many fears and concerns that drive the calamity scenario. There is fear of an increase in immigration pressure and of relatively well-off people being surrounded by a fast growing and increasingly poor population from developing countries. When fear predominates thinking coercion becomes a more acceptable strategy. A population projection of 78.5% of Asians and Africans by 2050 would approximate the population distribution in the 1650s and 1750s. Social and economic development as a collaborative approach is found to lower fertility. Concentration on Africas population growth rates obscures the influence of economic conditions war and political unrest. There is not a clear sense of direction from present food supply and distribution analysis that demand will not be met in the future. Economic conditions can deteriorate for some while others are receiving the benefits of economic growth. Food prices have declined and are likely to continue to decline and the regions of highest grain productivity are regions with large populations. Other factors besides population size explain the crowded slums in large urban areas. Birth rates appear to decline in countries that have more female education lowered mortality increased economic means and security and greater public discussion about life styles. Despite the population problem being serious the greater concern should be on the long-term effects of population on the environment and the adverse effects on quality of life particularly for women.

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