The impact of nominal and real uncertainty on macroeconomic aggregates in Greece

Abstract

We examine real uncertainty (measured by the variability of real growth) and whether it impacts on inflation. Additionally, we investigate whether nominal or real uncertainty impact on growth and, if so, in what direction. The results indicate that nominal uncertainty impacted negatively on growth in Greece, especially before euro area entry. The effect of real uncertainty on growth is more mixed, with some evidence that it positively influences growth though only at very short horizons. This effect also seems to have disappeared following euro area entry. Finally, there appears to be no effect of real uncertainty on inflation.

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