EU Enlargement and Endogeneity of some OCA Criteria: Evidence from the CEECs

Abstract

There are two opposite points of view on the link between economic integration and business cycle synchronization - "The European Commission View" and "The Krugman View". According to the European Commission, closer integration leads to less frequent asymmetric shocks and to more synchronized business cycles between countries. On the other hand, for Krugman closer integration implies higher specialization and, thus, higher risks of idiosyncratic shocks. Drawing on the evidence from a group of transition countries which have experienced a notable increase in trade openness and economic integration with the European Union during the past decade, this paper tries to determine whose argument is supported by the data.

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