Trimmed mean PCE inflation

James Dolmas

55 citations0/0 files storedRePEc: Research Papers in Economics

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets Market Dynamics and Volatility

Abstract

Research over the past decade has led to improved measures of core inflation in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. This paper discusses the application of some of the insights and techniques of that line of research to the Federal Reserve Bard of Governors? preferred inflation gauge, the price index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). The result is a new measure of core PCE inflation?the trimmed mean PCE?and a somewhat different characterization of the economy?s recent inflation experience. ; Compared to the story told by the usual ?excluding food and energy? measure, the trimmed mean PCE tells us that the lows reached in 2003 weren?t quite so low and that the highs reached in mid-2004 were really a bit higher. On a 12-month basis, the new measure suggests that core PCE inflation is currently about half a percentage point higher than what is being indicated by the ?excluding food and energy? inflation rate.

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References

1999Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series 1999The Band Pass Filter 2004On more robust estimation of skewness and kurtosis 1993Measuring Core Inflation 1995Measuring Core Inflation 2008Core Inflation: A Review of Some Conceptual Issues 1997Efficient Inflation Estimation 2011Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers

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2019Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation 2008Central banks and financial crises 2020A Simple Framework to Monitor Inflation 2019The Nonpuzzling Behavior of Median Inflation 2006The Performance of Trimmed Mean Measures of Underlying Inflation 2019Two Measures of Core Inflation: A Comparison 2005Assessing the value of indicators of underlying inflation for monetary policy

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