Le scelte di pensionamento in Italia: un'applicazione (ed estensione) del modello Option Value

Abstract

Le scelte di pensionamento in Italia: un'applicazione (ed estensione) del modello Option Value (di Luca Spataro) - ABSTARCT: Using the Bank of Italy Survey on the Budget of Italian Households, we adopt the "Option Value" framework to estimate the determinants of retirement choices of the Italian male employees. We find that the model improves the likelihood of the estimations if compared with some Probit models. However, evidence of a "puzzle" involving excess of retirement at age 60 is produced as well. The results suggest that Italians are relatively more risk averse, more patient and more "leisure adamants" than American workers. Finally, a theoretical extension is presented whereby we can obtain a prediction of the retirement age expectations: some tests carried out over the actual and the predicted distributions of the expected retirement ages show that the extended-model fitting improves when older individuals are progressively selected, leading to the conclusion that the decision of retiring is probably "rationally" assessed and taken only after a certain age. JEL Classification: J26, D84

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