Toward the year 2000 : work in progress

Abstract

The Year 2000 - the trajectory of an idea, Daniel Bell. Part 1 Working session one: preliminary memorandum to the commission from the chairman baselines for the future alternative futures centralization and decentralization the need for models a summary by the chairman. Part 2 Some specific problems: The next thirty-three years - a framework for speculation, Herman Kahn, anthony J. Wiener Can social predictions be evaluated? Fred Charles Ikle Forecasting and technological forecasting, Donald A. Schon Information, rationality, and free choice in a future democratic society, Martin Shubik Planning and predicting - or what to do when you don't know the names of the variables, Leonard J. Duhl Modernizing urban development, Harvey S. Perloff The relationship of federal to local authorities, Daniel P. Moynham The need for a new political theory, Lawrence K. Frank Universities cities in the Year 2000, Stephen R. Graubard Educational and scientific institutions, Harold Orlans Biological man and the Year 2000, Ernst Mayr Deliberate efforts to control human behaviour and modify personality, Gardner C. Quarton religion, mysticism, and the institutional church, Krister Stendahl Memorandum, on youth, Erik H. Erikson The life cycle and its variations - the division of roles, Margaret Mead The problems of privacy in the Year 2000, Harry Kalven, Jr. Some psychological perspectives on the Year 2000, George A. Miller Notes on meritocracy, David Riesman Violence, James Q. Wilson Communication, John R. Pierce Thinking about the future of international society, Eugene V. Rostow Political development and the decline of the American system of world order, Samuel P. Huntington The international system in the next half century, Itheil de Sola Pool. Part 3 Working session two: the nature and limitations of forecasting four futures the need for normative statements a summary by the chairman members of the commission on the Year 2000 the working parties Coda - work in further progress, Daniel Bell.

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