Black Market Rates and Official Rates in Armenia: Evidence from Causality Tests in Alternative Regimes

Abstract

This study investigates the causal relationship between the official and the black (market) rate in the foreign exchange market of Armenia, following the initiation of an independent foreign exchange market, after the country seceded from the Soviet Union and from the ruble zone in 1993, over three alternative time periods (regimes). The results suggest the presence of a causal relationship between the two rates with the course depending upon the period under investigation.

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