MODEL VALIDATION: AN OVERVIEW WITH SOME EMPHASIS ON RISK MODELS

Abstract

Model validation is a topic which has a long history in the literature This article attempts to focus much of the previous discussion upon agricultural economics models. True model validation is not possible. Nevertheless, model validation exercises improve the relevancy of models and strengthen the theoretical oasis for modelling. Procedures are given for conducting validation exercises and for dealing with models which fail such exercises. In addition. comments appear on considerations involved with the validation of risk models.

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