Economic Convergence of the CEECs with the EU

Laurence Boone · Mathilde Maurel

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Global Financial Crisis and Policies Monetary Policy and Economic Impact European Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Abstract

This paper tries to assess how costly it would be for the CEECs to peg their exchange rates to the Euro. We use three types of criteria: institutional (the Maastricht criteria); some measure of real convergence; and the Optimal Currency Area criteria. The institutional criteria seem to be an important impediment to an 'immediate' accession. There is also a lot more to do in terms of real convergence. Finally, the correlations of industrial production and unemployment cycles in the CEECs and the EU, or other reference countries, such as Germany, Greece, France and Portugal point towards a deeper integration of the CEECs with Germany than with the EU. This reflects the old ties Germany had and still has with Eastern countries and the likely key role Germany is going to play in the process of EU enlargement to Eastern Europe.

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2007Economic Convergence Between the CEE-8 and the European Union 2004Characterising the Business Cycle for Accession Countries 2004Exchange rate regimes and shocks asymmetry: the case of the accession countries 2006Meta-Analysis of the Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and the Ceecs 2004Real Convergence and Euro Adoption in Central and Eastern Europe: Trade and Business Cycle Correlations as Endogenous Criteria for Joining Emu 2004Comparing Economic Dynamics in the EU and CEE Accession Countries 2007A Meta-Analysis of Business Cycle Correlation between the Euro Area and CEECs: What Do We Know - and Who Cares?1977Exchange Rate Regimes and Supply Shocks Asymmetry: the Case of the Accession Countries

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