Has Globalization Changed Inflation?

Laurence M. Ball

157 citations0/0 files storedNational Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

Many observers suggest that the "globalization" of the U.S. economy has changed the behavior of inflation.This essay examines this idea, focusing on several questions: (1) Has globalization reduced the long-run level of inflation?(2) Has it affected the structure of inflation dynamics, as captured by the Phillips curve?(3) Has it contributed substantial negative shocks to the inflation process?The answers to these questions are no, no, and no.

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References

1983A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model 1981A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural-Rate Model 2003Globalization and Global Disinflation

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2009Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and Monetary Policy 2010Some Simple Tests of the Globalization and Inflation Hypothesis*2008Understanding the flattening Phillips curve 2008Does Immigration Affect the Phillips Curve? Some Evidence for Spain 2014Globalization and inflation: Evidence from a time-varying VAR 2008Does immigration affect the Phillips curve? Some evidence for Spain 2012Sources of disagreement in inflation forecasts: An international empirical investigation 2010Openness and Inflation

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