Scenario building: art, craft or just a fashionable whim?

Abstract

In future-oriented studies, scenario building and analysis are becoming increasingly fashionable. This apparent increase in popularity is, however, somewhat misleading: many studies in trend analysis, comparisons of static equilibria, variant analysisand sensitivity analysis are presented nowadays as scenario studies. The authors prefer to use the term `scenario' in the stricter sense: a scenario is a description of the current situation, of a possible or desirable future state as well as of the series of events that could lead from the current state of affairs to this future state.

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