Development of reliable pavement models

Abstract

"The current report proposes a framework for estimating the reliability of a given pavement structure as analyzed by the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG). The methodology proposes using a previously fit response surface, in place of the time-demanding implicit limit state functions used within the MEPDG, in combination with an analytical approach to estimating reliability using First-Order and Second-Order Reliability Methods (FORM and SORM). Additionally, in order to assess the accuracy of the FORM and SORM reliability estimates, Monte Carlo simulations are also performed."

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