The Lucas Critique in Practice: Theory Without Measurement

Neil R. Ericsson · John S. Irons

145 citations0/0 files storedInternational Finance Discussion Paper

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economic Theory and Policy Economic theories and models

Abstract

This paper investigates the empirical relevance of the Lucas critique. A database is constructed of all articles in the Social Science Citation Index that cite Lucas (1976). Those articles are characterized by the nature of the article, the context in which Lucas (1976) is cited, and the evidence presented on the Lucas critique. Virtually no evidence exists that empirically substantiates the Lucas critique. Empirical refutation of the Lucas critique by using tests of super exogeneity is illustrated with U.K. money demand. Numerous other studies similarly refute the Lucas critique for various empirical macro-economic relations.

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