CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDICES AND SHORT‐TERM FORECASTING OF CONSUMPTION*

Ali Al-Eyd · Ray J Barrell · E. Philip Davis

33 citations0/0 files storedManchester School

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Economic Theory and Policy Forecasting Techniques and Applications

Abstract

There is growing interest in examining the short‐term link between survey‐based confidence indicators and real economic activity. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short‐term predictive relationship between measures of consumer confidence and actual consumption, in a range of major industrial countries. It then extends such previous analyses by assessing whether this relation has changed over time, and whether we can attribute any time‐varying relation to structural developments in the economy, such as financial deepening and the increasing role of house prices in determination of consumption.

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1976Psychological Economics 2004Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending 1989Why is Consumption So Smooth?1997Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Expenditure? A Sentiment Index Horse Race 1993What role does consumer sentiment play in the U.S. macroeconomy 2007FINANCIAL LIBERALISATION, CONSUMPTION AND WEALTH EFFECTS IN SEVEN OECD COUNTRIES 1998Aggregate consumer expectation indexes as indicators of future consumer expenditures 2005Estimating tax and benefit multipliers in Europe

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2011Business confidence and stock returns in the USA: a time-varying Markov regime-switching model

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