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A COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF TRIP DISTRIBUTION PROCEDURES

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Transportation Planning and Optimization Urban and Freight Transport Logistics Traffic Prediction and Management Techniques

Abstract

THE RESULTS OF A RESEARCH PROJECT DESIGNED TO EVALUATE ON A COMMON BASIS THE FRATAR, GRAVITY, INTERVENING OPPORTUNITIES AND COMPETING OPPORTUNITIES TRIP DISTRIBUTION PROCEDURES ARE REPORTED. EACH OF THE PROCEDURES WAS CALIBRATED USING THE 1948 WASHINGTON, D. C., O-D SURVEY TRAVEL DATA AS A BASE. PROJECTIONS WERE MADE TO 1955 USING THE PROCEDURES RECOMMENDED BY THE PRINCIPAL DEVELOPERS OF THE TECHNIQUES. THE 1955 PROJECTIONS WERE THEN COMPREHENSIVELY TESTED AGAINST THE 1955 WASHINGTON, D. C., O-D SURVEY TRAVEL DATA. EACH PROCEDURE IS EVALUATED FOR TRAVEL PATTERN SIMULATION ABILITY AS WELL AS THE FORECASTING STABILITY OF THE PARAMETERS. VARIOUS METHODS EVALUATE THE ACCURACY OF THE MODELS INCLUDING TRIP LENGTH FREQUENCY DUPLICATION, SCREENLINE CHECKS, SPECIFIC MOVEMENT CHECKS AND OVERALL STATISTICAL EVALUATIONS OF THE ESTIMATED MOVEMENTS. THESE TESTS ARE PERFORMED FOR EACH TECHNIQUE AND COMPARISONS OF THE RELATIVE ACCURACIES ARE ALSO MADE. APPROPRIATE CHANGES IN THE CALIBRATION PROCEDURES ARE RECOMMENDED. /AUTHOR/

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