The Terms of Trade and Economic Growth in the Periphery 1870-1938

Christopher Blattman · Jason Hwang · Jeffrey Gale Williamson

29 citations0/0 files storedNational Bureau of Economic Research

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Economic Theory and Policy Historical Economic and Social Studies Economic Growth and Productivity

Abstract

The contending fundamental determinants of growth --institutions, geography and culture --exhibit far more persistence than do the growth rates they are supposed to explain.So, what exogenous shocks might account for the variance around those persistent fundamentals?The terms of trade seems to be one good place to look.Using a panel data base for 35 countries, this paper estimates the impact of terms of trade volatility and secular change between 1870 and 1938.We find that volatility was much more important than secular change.Additionally, both effects were asymmetric between core and periphery, findings that speak directly to the terms of trade debates that have raged since Prebisch and Singer wrote more than 50 years ago.

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References

2001The curse of natural resources 1975The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries 1994Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth 1997Divergence, Big Time 1993Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks 1988Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries: What the Long Run Shows 2001The impact of terms of trade and real exchange rate volatility on investment and growth in sub-Saharan Africa 1992The Tragedy of the Commons and Economic Growth: Why Does Capital Flow from Poor to Rich Countries?

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