Factors affecting transit ridership at the metropolitan level 2002-2007

Abstract

Thesis (M.P.P.)--Georgetown University, 2010.; Includes bibliographical references.; Text (Electronic thesis) in PDF format. Many of the nation's largest mass transit agencies will implement service cuts or fare hikes in 2010 in response to decreased ridership and subsidies from federal, state, and local governments. How these policy adjustments affect transit ridership will determine how the nation and states meet related policy goals: reduced roadway congestion, increased intra-urban mobility, economic development, and improved air quality. To determine the primary factors of transit ridership and the effects of service changes, I collect transit, transportation infrastructure, and socio-economic data on the top 54 most populous U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) for the years 2002-2007. Using a panel data structure to isolate the effects of transit service factors on ridership, and controlling for the effect of the transportation infrastructure and other socio-economic factors, I find that a $1.00 increase in average transit fare results in an estimated 21 percent decline in per capita transit ridership among the most populous MSA. Decreasing the amount of miles traveled by transit vehicles in an entire MSA by one percent is estimated to reduce per capita transit ridership by 0.63 percent. Using the regression results, I also show that the proposed fare increases by many of the top U.S. transit agencies will decrease transit ridership far less than cuts in transit service. In addition, my research shows that as MSAs grow in population, their per capita transit ridership level decreases, suggesting that transit agencies are failing to keep their services up with the rate of MSA population growth. As the top MSAs continue to increase their share of the nation's population and jobs, they should examine growth management policies that will increase their residential densities and make them more conducive to transit travel. MSAs that already have relatively high residential densities may benefit from increased transit service to boost ridership.

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