Preface to the Third Edition CHAPTER 1: The Process of Policy Analysis * The Process of Policy Inquiry * Multidisciplinary Policy Analysis* Policy-Relevant Information* Policy-Informational Transformations* Policy-Analytic Methods* Three Cases of Policy Analysis* Forms of Policy Analysis* Retrospective and Prospective Analysis* Descriptive and Normative Analysis* Problem Finding and Problem Solving * Segmented and Integrative * The Practice of Policy Analysis* Reconstructed Logic versus * Methodological Opportunity Costs* Critical Thinking and Public Policy * The Structure of Policy Arguments* Dynamics of Argumentation, Public Discourse, and Debate * Chapter Summary * Learning Objectives * Key Terms and Concepts* Review Questions * Demonstration Exercise * References *Case 1. Multidisciplinary Policy Analysis--Benefits, Costs, and Consequences of Highway Safety CHAPTER 2: Policy Analysis in the Policy-Making Process * Some Historical Background* Early Origins * The Nineteenth-Century Transformation* The Twentieth Century--And Beyond* The Policy-Making Process * Models of Policy Change* Comprehensive Economic Rationality * Second-Best Rationality* Disjointed Incrementalism * Bounded Rationality* Mixed Scanning * Erotetic Rationality* Critical Convergence* Punctuated Equilibrium* Policy Analysis in the Policy Process* Potential Uses of Analysis* Uses of Analysis in Practice* Chapter Summary * Learning Objectives* Key Terms and Concepts* Review Questions* Demonstration Exercise * References*Case 2. Are Policy Analysts Technocrats? CHAPTER 3: Structuring Policy Problems * Nature of Policy Problems* Beyond Problem Solving* Characteristics of Problems* Problems verses Issues* Three Classes of Policy Problems* Problem Structuring in Policy Analysis* Creativity in Problem Structuring* Phases of Problem Structuring* Errors of the Third Type (EIII)* Policy Models and Problem Structuring* Descriptive Models * Normative Models* Verbal Models* Symbolic Models* Procedural Models* Models as Surrogates and Perspectives* Methods of Problem Structuring* Boundary Analysis * Classificational Analysis* Hierarchy Analysis* Synectics* Brainstorming* Multiple Perspective Analysis* Assumptional Analysis* Argumentation Mapping* Chapter Summary* Learning Objectives * Key Terms and Concepts* Review Questions* Demonstration Exercise* References *Case 3. Problem Structuring in Mine Safety and Health, Traffic Safety, and Job Training CHAPTER 4: Forecasting Expected Policy Outcomes * Forecasting in Policy Analysis* Aims of Forecasting* Limitations of Forecasting* Types of Futures* Goals and Objectives of Normative Futures* Sources of Goals, Objectives, and Alternatives* Approaches to Forecasting* Objects* Bases* Choosing Methods and Techniques* Extrapolative Forecasting * Classical Time-Series Analysis* Linear Trend Estimation* Nonlinear Time Series * Exponential Weighting * Data Transformation* Catastrophe Methodology* Theoretical Forecasting* Theory Mapping* Theoretical Modeling* Causal Modeling* Regression Analysis* Point and Interval Estimation* Correlational Analysis* Judgmental Forecasting* The Delphi Technique* Cross-Impact Analysis* Feasibility Assessment* Chapter Summary* Learning Objectives* Key Terms and Concepts* Review Questions* Demonstration Exercise* References*Case 4. Political Consequences of Forecasting: Environmental Justice and Urban Mass Rapid Transit CHAPTER 5: Recommending Preferred Policies * Recommendation in Policy Analysis* Recommendation and Multiple Advocacy* Simple Model of Choice* Complex Model of Choice* Forms of Rationality* Criteria for Policy Recommendation* Approaches to Recommendation* Public versus Private Choice* Supply and Demand * Public Choice* Cost-Benefit Analysis* Types of Costs and Benefits* Tasks in Cost-Benefit Analysis * Cost-Effectiveness Analysis* Methods and Techniques for Recommendation* Objectives Mapping* Value Clarification* Value Critique* Cost Element Structuring * Cost Estimation* Shadow Pricing * Constraint Mapping * Cost Internalization* Discounting* Sensitivity Analysis*A Fortiori Analysis* Plausibility Analysis* Chapter Summary* Learning Objectives* Key Terms and Concepts* Review Questions* Demonstration Exercise* References*Case 5. Saving Time, Lives, and Gasoline: Benefits and Costs of the National Maximum Speed Limit CHAPTER 6: Monitoring Observed Policy Outcomes * Monitoring in Policy Analysis* Sources of Information* Types of Policy Outcomes* Types of Policy Actions* Definitions and Indicators* Approaches to Monitoring* Social Systems Accounting* Social Experimentation* Social Auditing * Research and Practice Synthesis * Techniques for Monitoring* Graphic Displays * The Gini Index* Tabular Displays* Index Numbers* Interrupted Time-Series Analysis* Control-Series Analysis* Regression-Discontinuity Analysis* Chapter Summary* Learning Objectives* Key Terms and Concepts* Review Questions* Demonstration Exercise* References *Case 6. Rival Explanations of Policy Outcomes: The Political Economy of Traffic Fatalities in Europe and the United States CHAPTER 7: Evaluating Policy Performance * Ethics and Values in Policy Analysis* Thinking about Values* Ethics and Metaethics* Standards of Conduct* Descriptive Ethics, Normative Ethics and Metaethics* Descriptive Value Typologies* Developmental Value Typologies* Normative Theories* Metaethical Theories * Evaluation in Policy Analysis* The Nature of Evaluation* Functions of Evaluation * Criteria for Policy Evaluation * Approaches to Evaluation * Pseudo-evaluation * Formal Evaluation* Varieties of Formal Evaluation* Decision-Theoretic Evaluation* Methods For Evaluation* Chapter Summary * Learning Objectives* Key Terms and Concepts * Review Questions * Demonstration Exercise * References*Case 7. Living Wage Policies in the United States CHAPTER 8: Developing Policy Arguments * The Structure of Policy Arguments* Types of Knowledge Claims* The Underdetermination of Conclusions by Information* Warrants, Backings, and Rebuttals* Modes of Policy Argumentation* Argumentation from Authority* Argumentation from Method* Argumentation from Generalization* Argumentation from Classification * Argumentation from Cause* Argumentation from Sign * Argumentation from Motivation* Argumentation from Intuition* Argumentation from Analogy* Argumentation from Parallel Case* Argumentation from Ethics* Evaluating Policy Arguments* Some Hermeneutic Guidelines* Guidelines from Informal and Formal Logic* Systems of Argumentation* Chapter Summary* Learning Objectives* Key Terms and Concepts* Review Questions* Demonstration Exercises* References*Case 8. Pros and Cons of Intervention in the Balkans CHAPTER 9: Communicating Policy Analysis * The Process of Policy Communication* Tasks in Policy Documentation * Tasks in Oral Presentations and Briefings* The Policy Issue Paper* Issues Addressed in the Policy Issue Paper* Elements of the Policy Issue Paper* The Policy Memorandum* The Executive Summary* The Letter of Transmittal * The Oral Briefing and Visual Displays* Policy Analysis in the Policy-Making Process* Characteristics of Information * Modes of Inquiry* Structure of Problems* Political and Bureaucratic Structures* Interactions among Stakeholders* Chapter Summary* Learning Objectives* Key Terms and Concepts* Review Questions* Demonstration Exercise* References*Case 9. Adopting the EPA Lead Standard: Communicating Technical Analyses to Multiple Audiences Appendix 1 The Policy Issue Paper Appendix 2 The Executive Summary Appendix 3 The Policy Memorandum Appendix 4 Planning Oral Briefings Author Index Subject Index
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