Evaluating and Comparing Forecasting Models

Shouyi Wang · Wanpracha Art Chaovalitwongse

29 citations0/0 files storedWiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science

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Forecasting Techniques and Applications Time Series Analysis and Forecasting Grey System Theory Applications

Abstract

Abstract Forecasting is a very important aspect of any business, and has enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts. Various forecasting models have been developed to help people make right decisions against future uncertainties. However, all forecasting models have distinct advantages and limitations. Selecting appropriate forecasting methods from numerous alternatives is crucial to success. This article briefly summarizes the state‐of‐the‐art forecasting methods in terms of basic procedure, underlying assumptions, applications, and limits. And then the most popular model selection criteria and guidelines are presented.

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1977Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control 1990Econometric Models and Economic Forecasts 1998Forecasting with artificial neural networks:1999The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis 1985Exponential smoothing: The state of the art 2006Exponential smoothing: The state of the art—Part II 1987Sales forecasting practices 1996Judgemental and statistical time series forecasting: a review of the literature

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