DAMPAK PERUBAHAN NILAI TUKAR MATA UANG TERHADAP EKSPOR INDONESIA

Abstract

ABSTRACT The aim of this research were (1) to analyze the impact of exchange rate movement on the Indonesian aggregate export volume and to Crude palm oils (CPO), rubber’s and coal’s, (2) to analyze factors that influencing those exports, and (3) to analyze Indonesian’s exports respond to those factors’ shock. The analysis method used was VAR/VECM, impulse-response function, and fixed-effects vector decomposition. World economic showed results as all models predicted were positive and significant effects on export volume. The relative price showed a negative and significant effect on all models. The exchange rate depreciation only showed a positive and significant effect on CPO model. It this research concluded that the exchange rate movement does not have any effect on Indonesia export volume despite the commodities model have little to no import parts on its final export goods. Keywords: granger causality, VAR/VECM, export, exchange rate ABSTRAK Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah (1) menganalisis dampak perubahan nilai tukar uang terhadap volume ekspor agregat dan komoditas Crude palm oil (CPO), karet, dan batu bara Indonesia, (2) menganalisis faktor yang mempengaruhi volume ekspor agregat dan komoditas CPO, karet, dan batu bara Indonesia, (3) menganalisis respon ekspor Indonesia terhadap guncangan variabel yang mempengaruhinya. Metode analisis data yang digunakan VAR/VECM, impulse-response function, dan fixed-effects vector decomposition. Ekonomi dunia menunjukkan hasil yang sesuai prediksi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan pada volume ekspor pada seluruh model. Harga relatif memberikan hasil sesuai dengan prediksi negatif dan signifikan pada seluruh model. Depresiasi nilai tukar hanya menunjukkan hubungan positif signifikan pada model CPO. Dapat disimpulkan bahwa pergerakan nilai tukar tidak memiliki dampak pada volume ekspor Indonesia walaupun model komoditas hanya memiliki sedikit bagian impor pada barang akhir untuk ekspor. Kata kunci: granger causality, VAR/VECM, ekspor, nilai tukar

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