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wish to thank Refet Gurkaynak for expert research assistance. The Japanese economy continues in a deep recession. The shortrange IMF forecast is that, as of the last quarter of 1999, Japanese real GDP will be 4.6 % below its potential. This number is itself a mild improvement over a year earlier, when the IMF estimated Japanese GDP at 5.6 % below potential. A case can be made, however, that these figures significantly underestimate the output losses created by the protracted slump. From the beginning of the 1980s through 1991Q4, a period during which Japanese real economic growth had already declined markedly from the heady days of the 1960s and 1970s, real GDP in Japan grew by nearly 3.8 % per year. In contrast, from 1991Q4 through 1999Q4 the rate of growth of real GDP was less than 0.9 % per year. If growth during the 1991-1999 period had been even 2.5 % per year, Japanese real GDP in 1999 would have been 13.6 % higher than the value actually attained. 1
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