Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Abstract

This chapter describes a variety of quantitative risk assessments that are conducted in assessing risks of aerospace missions. The methods, issues, and challenges that are described have general relevance and applicability, and applications at NASA are used to illustrate their utility. The quantitative risk assessments that are covered range from specialized studies such as assessments of project risks involving transfer of a DC-8 aircraft to large-scale probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) conducted on the International Space Station and Space Shuttle. Because of the range of problems addressed, there are various issues in carrying out quantitative risk assessments having the appropriate fidelity and applicability. This chapter presents examples of the issues that are faced in carrying out quantitative risk analyses and ways these issues can be resolved. The examples that are covered are the Space Shuttle PRA that is continually being updated, evaluating cumulative risks to complement NASA's risk matrix approach, and quantifying software reliability to assist software assurance and project risk management.

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