The Rationality and Efficiency of Individuals' Forecasts

Herman O. Stekler

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Forecasting Techniques and Applications Financial Markets and Investment Strategies Sports Analytics and Performance

Abstract

This chapter contains section titled: INTRODUCTION RATIONALITY: WEAK AND STRONG (EFFICIENCY) TYPES OF FORECASTS STATISTICAL TESTS EMPIRICAL RESULTS - WEAK FORM INFORMATIONAL EFFICIENCY U.K. EMPIRICAL RESULTS WHY ARE SOME FORECASTS NOT RATIONAL? RELATED TOPICS AND UNRESOLVED ISSUES CONCLUSIONS

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1961Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements 1969The Combination of Forecasts 1989Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography 1980Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis 1995The Handbook of Research Synthesis 1998Tests for Forecast Encompassing 1986Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models 1990Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data

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2005Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?

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