TÜRKİYE’DE CARİ AÇIĞIN NEDENLERİNİN EKONOMETRİK ANALİZ

Osman Peker · Hakan Hotunluoğlu

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Global Financial Crisis and Policies Economic Theory and Policy

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de cari işlemler açığının nedenlerini, vektör otoregresif (vector autoregression: VAR) yöntemi yardımıyla, 1992:01-2007-12 dönemi aylık verileriyle analiz etmektir. Çalışmanın ampirik kanıtlarına göre, reel döviz kuru, reel faiz oranı ve imkb Türkiye’de cari açığın belirleyicilerini açıklayan en önemli değişkenlerdir. Bunun yanı sıra, ulusal gelirin cari açık üzerindeki etkisi düşük kalmıştır.

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