The future of the euro: a public choice perspective

Roland Vaubel

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European Monetary and Fiscal Policies European Union Policy and Governance Global Financial Crisis and Policies

Abstract

Public choice analysis can be helpful in predicting the course of European monetary integration and policy. The median (or decisive) voter theorem, the theory of the political business cycle and the economic theory of bureaucracy are all applicable. The purpose of this paper is to explain and predict the behaviour of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Council of Ministers on the basis of the available empirical evidence.

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References

1985The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target 1993Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence 1998Inflation culture, central bank independence and price stability 1996Why Does Inflation Differ Across Countries?1998Central bank independence and disinflationary credibility: a missing link?1999Central bank independence and inflation: Corporatism, partisanship, and alternative indices of central bank independence 1978Real exchange-rate changes in the European community 1999The political economy of inflation: Bargaining structure or central bank independence?

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1999The role of a regional bank in a system of central banks

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