The estimation of China's economic growth rate

Abstract

Many scholars of the Chinese economy have concluded that official estimates of China's GDP growth rate are too high. Journalists have popularized this view, but we disagree. We use a method that examines several strategic indicators that are suggested by basic social accounting principles and conclude that principal components of these indicators reflect the movement of official estimates of the Chinese economy. This conclusion holds whether one uses annual, quarterly or monthly indicators. It cannot be claimed that we have proved that GDP as officially measured is correct. No one knows the correct estimate; that is the whole point of showing how different such estimates can be, depending on how they are calculated, and this is true the world over. Our estimates survive diagnostic tests, within-sample interpolations and outside-sample extrapolations in monthly, quarterly, and annual time frames. It is reasonable to expect that introduction of quality adjustments will justify higher estimates.

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