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Decomposition for Judgmental Forecasting and Estimation
16 references·12 citing·30 second hop
Decomposition for Judgmental Forecasting and Estimation (2001)Decomposition for Judgmental Forecasting …Principles of Forecasting (2001)Principles of ForecastingOverconfidence in Judgmental Forecasting (2001)Overconfidence in Judgmental …Journal of business forecasting (1996)Journal of business forecasti…The psychology of judgment and decision making (1994)The psychology of judgment an…On the Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making (1993)On the Psychology of Judgment…Decision analysis and behavioral research (1986)Decision analysis and behavio…Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (1984)Judgment Under Uncertainty: H…Judgment under uncertainty: Causality and attribution (1982)Judgment under uncertainty: C…Judgment under Uncertainty (1982)Judgment under UncertaintyLong Range Forecasting (From Crystal Ball to Computer). (1981)Long Range Forecasting (From …The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. (1979)The robust beauty of improper…Long-Range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer (1979)Long-Range Forecasting: From …Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1975)Judgment under Uncertainty: H…Linear models in decision making. (1974)Linear models in decision mak…Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment (1971)Comparison of Bayesian and re…When shall we use our heads instead of the formula? (1957)When shall we use our heads i…Fermian guesstimation can boost the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd (2024)Fermian guesstimation can boo…Forecasting AI progress: A research agenda (2021)Forecasting AI progress: A re…Stressed decision makers and use of decision aids: a literature review and conceptual model (2019)Stressed decision makers and …The Influence of Judgment Decomposition on Auditors' Fraud Risk Assessments: Some Trade-Offs (2018)The Influence of Judgment Dec…Forecasting methods and principles: Evidence-based checklists (2018)Forecasting methods and princ…Guidelines for Science: Evidence and Checklists (2017)Guidelines for Science: Evide…Demand forecasting: evidence-based methods (2017)Demand forecasting: evidence-…Decomposition as a Complex‐Skill Acquisition Strategy in Management Education: A Case Study in Business Forecasting (2009)Decomposition as a Complex‐Sk…Decomposition by causal forces: a procedure for forecasting complex time series (2004)Decomposition by causal force…Standards and Practices for Forecasting (2001)Standards and Practices for F…Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation (2001)Rule-Based Forecasting: Using…Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data (2001)Extrapolation for Time-Series…The theory of decision making. (1954)Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate? (2000)Heuristics and Biases: The Psychology of Intuitive Judgment (2004)Best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method (2014)Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness (1972)Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability (1973)On the psychology of prediction. (1973)The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice (1981)Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk (1988)Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty (1992)Financial Ratios As Predictors of Failure (1966)A circumplex model of affect. (1980)Heuristic Decision Making (2010)Rational choice and the structure of the environment. (1956)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1956)Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974)Telling more than we can know: Verbal reports on mental processes. (1977)The magical number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information. (1994)The emerging conceptualization of groups as information processors. (1997)System Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World (2002)The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis (2004)Accounting for common method variance in cross-sectional research designs. (2001)Those Who Understand: Knowledge Growth in Teaching (1986)The weirdest people in the world? (2010)Expert Opinions in Forecasting: The Role of the Delphi Technique (2001)Consensus measurement in Delphi studies (2012)Rethinking Partial Least Squares Path Modeling: In Praise of Simple Methods (2012)Perception of Risk (1987)Introduction: epistemic communities and international policy coordination (1992)Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency (1993)
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References

  • 1975Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases22,647 cited
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  • 1982Judgment under uncertainty: Causality and attribution4,616 cited
  • 1986Decision analysis and behavioral research3,035 cited
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  • 1971Comparison of Bayesian and regression approaches to the study of information processing in judgment1,819 cited
  • 1994The psychology of judgment and decision making1,253 cited
  • 2001Principles of Forecasting1,178 cited
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  • 1981Long Range Forecasting (From Crystal Ball to Computer).357 cited
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  • 1979Long-Range Forecasting: From Crystal Ball to Computer226 cited
  • 2001Overconfidence in Judgmental Forecasting

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168 cited

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  • 2001Rule-Based Forecasting: Using Judgment in Time-Series Extrapolation54 cited
  • 2004Decomposition by causal forces: a procedure for forecasting complex time series44 cited
  • 2018Forecasting methods and principles: Evidence-based checklists43 cited
  • 2017Demand forecasting: evidence-based methods40 cited
  • 2019Stressed decision makers and use of decision aids: a literature review and conceptual model23 cited
  • 2018The Influence of Judgment Decomposition on Auditors' Fraud Risk Assessments: Some Trade-Offs21 cited
  • 2009Decomposition as a Complex‐Skill Acquisition Strategy in Management Education: A Case Study in Business Forecasting11 cited
  • 2017Guidelines for Science: Evidence and Checklists9 cited
  • 2024Fermian guesstimation can boost the wisdom-of-the-inner-crowd2 cited