Probabilistic Risk Assessment ( PRA )

Abstract

Abstract This article describes the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodology as applied to technological systems and discusses its possible applicability to terrorism. The principal PRA obejctives are the evaluation of the frequency of occurrence of undesirable system states, the identification of accident sequences leading to these states, the evaluation of their frequencies of occurrence, and the ranking of these sequences according to these frequencies. Systems, structures, and components are also ranked according to their contributions to the frequencies of the undesirable states. These rankings are important inputs to risk management. The application of PRA to terrorism presents several challenges. The identification of terrorist events that may lead to undesirable consequences and the evaluation of their frequencies of occurrence are major challenges. Additionally, the binary logic employed in traditional PRAs is not useful for infrastructures because the analysis must account for the capacity of their nodes and arcs. Illustrative examples are provided.

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