Expected Inflation and TIPS

Charles T. Carlstrom · Timothy Stephen Fuerst

19 citations0/0 files storedRePEc: Research Papers in Economics

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Financial Markets and Investment Strategies Market Dynamics and Volatility

Abstract

When inflation-indexed Treasury securities were first introduced, economists hoped that they could be used to measure expected inflation easily. The only difference between securities that were indexed to inflation and those that were not was thought to be the extra compensation regular securities had to pay for what the market thought inflation would be. By now it is pretty clear that inflation-indexed Treasuries differ from regular securities in other ways that show up in the yields. This Commentary suggests what these are and discusses a method of correcting for them.

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1996A Scorecard for Indexed Government Debt 2001Can TIPS Help Identify Long-Term Inflation Expectations?

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2005Longer-Term Perspectives on the Yield Curve and Monetary Policy 2013New tips from TIPS: Identifying inflation expectations and the risk premia of break-even inflation

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