Monetary Policy and the Term Spread in a Macro Model of a Small Open Economy

Viktor Kotlán

26 citations0/0 files storedRePEc: Research Papers in Economics

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Monetary Policy and Economic Impact Global Financial Crisis and Policies Economic theories and models

Abstract

This paper argues that shortcomings of the single-equation approach may produce results that are biased, and that the predictive ability must be analyzed from within a model framework. It has elected to use a simple macroeconomic model of a small open economy and examine the predictive properties of the term spread from within its framework.

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References

1976Econometric policy evaluation: A critique 1998Monetary policy rules in practice 1997Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets 2000Open-Economy Inflation Targeting 2000Habit Formation in Consumption and Its Implications for Monetary-Policy Models 1997The predictive power of the term structure of interest rates in Europe and the United States: Implications for the European Central Bank 1986The Changing Behavior of the Term Structure of Interest Rates 1990Term-structure forecasts of interest rates, inflation and real returns

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