Planning for Conflict Termination and Post-Conflict Success

Abstract

United States and Soviets, along with world opinion, forced the British and French to withdraw.President Nasser, rather than being defeated, became the victor and the leader of the Arab cause, while the British and the French lost prestige and influence.How could rational decisionmakers get it so wrong? 3 This article examines the doctrinal basis for conflict termination planning and provides suggestions and approaches for greater success. FundamentalsConflict termination is the formal end of fighting, not the end of conflict.US doctrine holds that the goal of military operations is to set conditions that compel belligerents' decisionmakers to end hostilities on terms favorable to the United States and its allies.US joint doctrine and NATO doctrine state: "If the conditions have been properly set and met for ending the conflict, the necessary leverage should exist to prevent the adversary from renewing hostilities. . . .When friendly forces can freely impose their will on the adversary, the opponent may have to accept defeat, terminate active hostilities, or revert to other types of conflict such as geopolitical actions or guerrilla warfare." 4 The definition focuses on conflict termination, not conflict resolution.The military fight may stop without the causes of the conflict being resolved.Current joint doctrine thus recognizes that although coercive military operations may end, the conflict may continue under other means such as terrorism, insurgency, cyber war, economic disruptions, political actions, or acts of civil disobedience.Although the military may be engaged in a "post-conflict" peace operation, the belligerents may continue their struggle using these other means.This was definitely the case in Kosovo and is currently the case in Afghanistan, where the military is engaged in stability operations in the midst of conflict.Even in Iraq, where the coalition military victory is unquestioned, the post-conflict situation remains unsettled.Conflict termination and resolution clearly are not the same thing.Conflict resolution is a long process.It is primarily a civil problem that may require military support.Through advantageous conflict termination, however, the military can set the conditions for successful conflict resolution.The keys to successful conflict termination include the following fundamentals: conducting early interagency planning; establishing workable objectives, goals, and end states; providing for adequate intelligence and signaling; 96 Parameters

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