Resolving Uncertainty in R&D Portfolios

Abstract

OVERVIEW:Two major reasons for the limited success of R&D portfolio analysis are failure to address qualitative information and reliance upon single-point values for estimates rather than focusing on the key drivers of uncertainty. Uncertainty should be addressed as a principal aspect of the analysis throughout the life of the project. Key metrics and their weightings must also change as one moves from early through later stages of a project. Results of the project assessments can be summarized in a series of charts, including probability of success versus NPV (using ellipses), project sales over the next five years, resource allocations on each project, and the listing of key sources of uncertainty for each project.

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