Have Sexual Abuse and Physical Abuse Declined Since the 1990s?

Abstract

This bulletin summarizes statistics on trends for sexual and physical abuse. A decline in sexual abuse since the early 1990s is a conclusion supported by 3 independent sources of agency data and 4 separate large victim surveys. The trend for physical abuse is less clear, since several of the data sources show conflicting patterns. Information from several sources has shown declining rates of both sexual and physical abuse from the early 1990s through 2010. But other data and a variety of opinion have disputed whether these trends indicate a true decline in prevalence. This brief is an effort to assess what the current evidence is about these trends. SEXUAL ABUSE – 7 INDEPENDENT SOURCES SHOW DECLINES The case that there has been a true decline in sexual abuse is stronger than the case about physical abuse, and it comes from a variety of sources. Three independent sets of agency data show substantial declines in sexual abuse over this pe‐ riod. At least 4 victim self‐report surveys also show declines. A variety of related child welfare “outcome indicators ” sup‐ port the idea of a true decline. Finally, efforts to substantiate “alternative explanations ” for the decline, due to changed polices or practices, have not been supported. Agency data Child protection system substantiations. The National Child Abuse and Neglect Data System (NCANDS) aggregates data from state child protective agencies. That data show a 62% decline in rates of substantiated sexual abuse starting in 1992 and continuing through 2010, with the largest drop occurring in the late 1990s (Figure 1). The raw numbers declined from

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