EXPRESSING AND COMMUNICATING UNCERTAINTY IN RELATION TO QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS

Roger Flage · Terje Aven

145 citations0/0 files storedJournal of Polish Safety and Reliability Association

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Risk and Safety Analysis Risk Perception and Management Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design

Abstract

A quantitative risk analysis (QRA) should provide a broad, informative and balanced picture of risk, in order to support decisions. To achieve this, a proper treatment of uncertainty is a prerequisite. Most approaches to treatment of uncertainty in QRA seem to be based on the thinking that uncertainty relates to the calculated probabilities and expected values. This causes difficulties when it comes to communicating what the analysis results mean, and could easily lead to weakened conclusions if large uncertainties are involved. An alternative approach is to hold uncertainty, not probability, as a main component of risk, and regard probabilities purely as epistemic-based expressions of uncertainty. In the paper the latter view is taken, and we describe what should be the main components of a risk description when following this approach. We also indicate how this approach relates to decision-making. An important issue addressed is how to communicate the shortcomings and limitations of probabilities and expected values. Sensitivity analysis plays a key role in this regard. Examples are included to illustrate ideas and findings.

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References

2001Probabilistic Risk Analysis: Foundations and Methods 2003An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage 2004How Useful Is Quantitative Risk Assessment?1996Guest editorial: treatment of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in performance assessments for complex systems 2008Risk Analysis: Assessing Uncertainties Beyond Expected Values and Probabilities

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