Finansal Gelişmişliğin Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri: Türkiye İçin Bir VAR Modeli

Abstract

In recent years, financial liberalization process has contributed to the globalization of financial centers, positively. In conjunction with globalization, portfolios of investors have been enriched and foreign fund inflows have risen in the domestic financial markets. Therefore financial systems, center of the fund transfer process, have become the most important factor of the economic systems and depending on this the efficiency of financial systems has affected the macroeconomic success. Hence, using the annual data base for the period of 1986-2012, VAR analysis has been applied to determine the relationship between financial development and its determinants in this study. The results of the analysis have shown that the most important factors effected the financial markets are national product, portfolio investments, saving rates, real interests, inflation rate and current account deficit. In addition, the results have indicated that although high interestlow exchange rate policy, practiced in Turkey for many years, has contributed to the development of financial markets, this policy implementation has increased the economic vulnerability. In this context, it can be said that to ensure both the process of sustainable economic growth and stability of financial markets the policies which may establish the structural transformation need to be implemented. 1. GİRİŞ Günümüzde tüm finansal sistemlerin ortak çabalarından bir tanesi tasarrufların etkin bir biçimde ekonomiye yönlendirilmesini sağlamaktır. Bunu gerçekleştirebilmek için finansal gelişim sürecine katkı sağlayabileceği düşünülen makroekonomik faktörler birçok araştırmaya konu olmuştur. Bir finansal piyasanın gelişmişliği ölçülürken; sermaye hesabının serbestliği, dış ticaretin liberalizasyonu, piyasa işlem hacmi, toplam kredi ve mevduatların milli gelire oranı, ülkelerde uygulanan yasal mevzuatın orijini, borçlanma, bütçe açıkları, belirsizlik faktörü olarak enflasyon, piyasanın derinliği ve fon aktarma maliyetlerinin düşüklüğü gibi ölçütler kullanılmaktadır.

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