Firm performance, macroeconomic conditions, and “animal spirits” in a Post Keynesian model of aggregate fluctuations

Abstract

:We construct a multiagent system (MAS) model of cyclical growth in which aggregate fluctuations result from variations in activity at the firm level. The latter, in turn, result from changes in “animal spirits” or the state of long-run expectations (SOLE) and their effect on firms’ investment behavior. We focus on the impact of publicly available information about macroeconomic conditions—analogous to the press releases of national statistical agencies—on changes in the SOLE and hence the amplitude of aggregate fluctuations. Our results suggest that the amplitude of fluctuations is reduced by extremes of attention or inattention to aggregate economic performance, but that this relationship is subject to complicated (and possibly complex) phase transitions exhibiting extreme sensitivity to initial conditions.

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