Stagnating Life Expectancies and Future Prospects in an Age of Uncertainty

Justin T. Denney · Robert F. McNown · Richard G. Rogers · Steven Doubilet

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Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management Health disparities and outcomes Global Health Care Issues

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: This article provides a timely assessment of U.S. life expectancy given recent stalls in the growth of length of life, the continuing drop in international rankings of life expectancy for the U.S., and during a period of growing social and economic insecurity. METHODS: Time series analysis is used on over 70 years of data from the Human Mortality Database to forecast future life expectancy to the year 2055. RESULTS: The results show limited improvements in U.S. life expectancy at birth, less than 3 years on average, for both men and women. CONCLUSIONS: Even in uncertain times, it is important to look forward in preparing for the needs of future populations. The results presented here underscore the relevance of policy and health initiatives aimed at improving the nation's health and reveal important insight into possible limits to mortality improvement over the next five decades.

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