Articlebronze2008

Getting Real about Adapting to Climate Change: Using “Real Options” to Address the Uncertainties

46 citations0/0 files storedAgenda - A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform

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Capital Investment and Risk Analysis Climate Change Policy and Economics Sustainability and Climate Change Governance

Abstract

Scientists predict that some climate change is already inevitable, even if greenhouse emissions are stabilised.Adaptation strategies will be of comparable importance to reducing emissions.However, the specific effects of climate change are currently unknowable, especially at the local level.Given this uncertainty, deterministic adaptation strategies are inappropriate.Rather than building 'worst-case scenario' sea walls, for example, strong foundations can be laid -so that walls can be built (or not built) in future to match actual climatic conditions without incurring unnecessary upfront expense.Other examples of such 'real options' are provided to illustrate the feasibility of the approach.

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References

1994Investment Under Uncertainty.2008Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007Climate change 2007: lifting the taboo on adaptation.2005Adaptation and mitigation: trade-offs in substance and methods 2007The Strategy Paradox: Why Committing to Success Leads to Failure and What to Do about It 2007The strategy paradox : why committing to success leads to failure (and what to do about it)2007Business Method Patents as Real Options: Value and Disclosure as Drivers of Litigation

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