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Decision analysis for mitigating natural disaster risks

Hiroyuki Tamura · Kiyoshi Yamamoto · Katsuhiro Akazawa · K. Taji

4 citations0/0 files storedConference proceedings/Conference proceedings - IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics

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Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics Disaster Management and Resilience Risk Perception and Management

Abstract

This paper aims at developing a methodology of decision analysis for mitigating natural disaster risks arising with low probability for which the expected utility theory of von Neumann and Morgenstern (1947) is inadequate. It is shown that the value function under risk is a useful model for evaluating public risks of extreme events that influence numerous people enormously or the environment badly with low probability.

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References

1979Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk 1988Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk 2019Theory of games and economic behavior 1945Theory of Games and Economic Behavior 1946Theory of Games and Economic Behavior 1980Experiments on Decisions under Risk: The Expected Utility Hypothesis 1999A Survey of Approaches for Assessing and Managing the Risk of Extremes

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