Exchange Rate Pass-through in Nigeria: Evidence from a Vector Error Correction Model

Abstract

The paper investigates the degree of exchange rate pass-through to import and consumer prices in Nigeria between 1986Q1 and 2007Q4 on the basis of vector error correction methodology. Results reveal that exchange rate pass-through in Nigeria is low, slightly higher in the import than in the consumer prices, significant and persistent. A one percent shock to exchange rate, for instance, results in 14.3 and -10.5 percent pass-through effect to import and consumer prices four quarters ahead, respectively. This, among other things, suggests that exchange rate pass-through in Nigeria declines along the price chain, and partly overturns the conventional wisdom in the literature that ERPT is always considerably higher in developing and emerging economies than in developed economies. Although pass-through effect is envisaged to increase with greater integration of the economy into the global world in future, but, the fact that it was found to be incomplete implies that prices react less proportionately to exchange shock in Nigeria and this is very useful to policymakers, especially in the design and implementation of monetary policy.

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