Multiple unofficial economy equilibria and income distribution dynamics in systemic transition

Abstract

Large increases in unofficial economies in many transition economies arise from a dynamic interaction with rising income inequality and public sector changes in a multiple equilibria system. Returns to unofficial activity are first increasing and then decreasing, implying two distinct stable equilibria, with changes in inequality possibly causing a jump from one to the other. Multiple regressions of data from 18 transition economies find income inequality significantly correlated with the size of the unofficial economy, with the maximum annual rate of inflation also significantly correlated. The latter appears to be the only significant correlate with the increase in the size of the unofficial economy.

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