The Accuracy of Financial Analysts' Forecasts after Mergers

Abstract

This paper examines forecasts developed by financial analysts before and after mergers. The study finds that forecast accuracy decreases sharply after mergers. These accuracy reductions tend to be more pronounced when financial leverage changes, when the merger does not provide earnings or industry diversification, when the purchase method of accounting is used to record the transaction, when capital intensity changes, and when the size of the target corporation is large compared to the size of the acquiring corporation. The data also show that reductions in forecast accuracy after mergers tend to be temporary. Accuracy returns to approximately the premerger level within four years after the merger. The study also finds that overprediction bias increases sharply in the year immediately following the merger. This increase in over-prediction bias, however, is also temporary. Overprediction bias returns to approximately the premerger level within the four-year postmerger study period.

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