Some Methods for Scenario Analysis in Defence Strategic Planning

Minh-Tuan Nguyen

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Strategic Planning and Analysis Military Strategy and Technology Complex Systems and Decision Making

Abstract

Abstract : Scenarios are an important tool in the strategic planning process, and are increasingly used in both the Defence and business world. This paper describes some potentially useful scenario analysis methods for systematically selecting and developing future scenarios. The processes of each method are illustrated with small examples. We also demonstrate a single, flexible approach to combining these methods using a typical Defence strategic planning problem. Some general guidelines to consider when choosing and using an appropriate scenario analysis method are also discussed.

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References

1975the delphi method: techniques and applications 1972Technological forecasting for decision making 1968Initial experiments with the cross impact matrix method of forecasting 2006Problem structuring using computer-aided morphological analysis 1977Problems in futures research 1988A new method of scenario analysis for strategic planning 1981Whole-pattern futures projection, using field anomaly relaxation 1983Improving the Consistency of Conditional Probability Assessments for Forecasting and Decision Making

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2020Threat Analysis: Scenarios and their Likelihoods

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