The performance of hybrid ARIMA-GARCH modeling in forecasting gold price

Abstract

Gold has been considered a safe return investment because of its characteristic to hedge against inflation.As a result, the models to forecast gold must reflect its structure and pattern.Gold prices follow a natural univariate time series data and one of the methods to forecast gold prices is Box-Jenkins, specifically the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models.This is due to its statistical properties, accurate forecasting over a short period of time, ease of implementation and able to handle nonstationary data.Despite the fact that ARIMA is powerful and flexible in forecasting, however it is not able to handle the volatility and nonlinearity that are present in the data series.Previous studies showed that generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedatic (GARCH) models are used in time series forecasting to handle volatility in the commodity data series including gold prices.Hence, this study investigate the performance of hybridization of potential univariate time series specifically ARIMA models with the superior volatility model, GARCH incorporates with the formula of Box-Cox transformation in analyzing and forecasting gold price.The Box-Cox transformation is used as the data transformation due to its power in normalizing data, stabilizing variance and reducing heteroskedasticity.Empirical results indicate that the proposed hybrid model ARIMA-GARCH has improved the estimating and forecasting accuracy by fivefold compared to the previously selected forecasting method.The findings suggest that combination of ARIMA (powerful and flexibility) and GARCH (strength of models in handling volatility and risk in the data series) have potential to overcome the linear and data limitation in the ARIMA models.Thus, this hybridization of ARIMA-GARCH is a novel and promising approach in gold price modeling and forecasting.

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