Forecasting Systems for Production and Inventory Control

Abstract

Quantitative forecasting techniques see their greatest application as part of production and inventory systems. Perhaps unfortunately, the problem has been left to systems analysts while the professional societies have contented themselves with exhortations to improve forecasting, neglecting recent developments from forecasting research. However, improvements in accuracy have a direct and often substantial financial impact. This article shows how the production and inventory control forecasting problem differs from other forecasting applications in its use of information and goes on to consider the characteristics of inventory type data. No single forecasting method is suited to all data series and the article then discusses how recent developments in forecasting methodology can improve accuracy. Considers approaches to extending the database beyond just the time‐series history of the data series. Concludes with a discussion of an “ideal” forecasting system and how far removed many popular programs used in production and inventory control are from this ideal.

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