Eastern Europe's international trade

Abstract

Part 1 Introduction and summary: background the volume and direction of trade the Europe agreements the composition of exports conclusion. Part 2 Eastern Europe's potential trade: the gravity model - the implications of the gravity model, the theory of the gravity model the data the application of the gravity model - the estimates, East European trade, alternative estimates, the implications for the west. Part 3 The Europe agreements - with a little help from our friends: title III - free movement of goods - coverage, antidumping and safeguard, rules of orign, CEEC liberalization, the implications title IV - workers, establishment and services TITLE V - payments, competition and the approximation of laws TITLE VI - economic co-operation TITLE VIII - financial co-operation. Part 4 Quantifying the effects of the Europe agreements - three case studies: the simulation model - markets and suppliers, the model, calibration, simulating trade liberalization iron and steel - EC trade policy on iron and steel, the model, liberalizing imports from Eastern Europe, changing demand, a steel cartel clothing - EC trade policy on clothing, modelling trade policy, liberalization footwear - the structure of the model, the data, liberalizing imports from the CEECs. Part 5 Eastern Europe's comparative advantage - the role of human capital: the stock of human capital Eastern European schooling - the Hungarian and Polish education systems, school science scores and skill levels, comparative advantage, Hungary and Poland secondary education and economic development. Part 6 Export potential - a case-study of clothing: the survey production - the pattern of production, employment and production conditions, financial standing, cost structure and productivity export performance - the export share in 1989, the growth of exports, successful exporters, trade barriers. Part 7 Appendices: the gravity model and China the elasticity of demand.

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